Multipliers and chance
In Demo, the number on a box is what each 1 you stake pays back if the price touches it.
- Chance of a box
- 90% ÷ ×
- House edge
- 10%
Live boxes have no multiplier. They show an estimated gain in dollars instead: see The board.
Reading a box
| Step | Example |
|---|---|
| The box shows | 2.1× |
| Exact multiplier | 2.12× |
| A stake of 10 pays | 21.20 |
| Net if it hits | +11.20 |
The box rounds down to 0.1×, and so does your card once it's accepted. You see the exact multiplier when you press, hover or focus a box, in the footer once your call is accepted, and on the receipt.
Chance
Chance = 90% ÷ the exact multiplier, rounded to 1%. It's the quote's chance of a touch, after the house edge. You can see it before you tap:
- Press and hold a box, or hover it.
- Use the keyboard list of boxes: each box reads out its multiplier and chance.
- Turn on Chance on every box in Board to show it under every number.
Near or far
| Box | Exact multiplier | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Next to the price | 1.20× | 75% |
| A few rows away | 2.00× | 45% |
| Far away | 6.00× | 15% |
These are examples. Real numbers depend on the market and on how far off the window is. Near boxes are likely and pay little. Far boxes are unlikely and pay more.
The house edge
Multipliers are set to pay back 90% of stakes on average: a 10% house edge. Measured on recorded Strike prices, the return was lower: 76–84%. These figures cover BTC, ETH and SOL; ADA hasn't been measured yet.
Why the number can change
Quotes refresh as the price moves. If the multiplier drops too far before your tap arrives, the tap is refused as Price moved. Once a box is accepted, its multiplier stays fixed.
Multipliers are the rules of a game with no money in it. They don't price anything.